Hierarchy misalignment and war: Network effects of relational and material power

Previous research has examined the impact of international hierarchy and war at the state and system level, yet precise mechanisms remain under-theorized and specified. We address this gap by introducing a theory of hierarchy misalignment, where discrepancies between states’ material and relational power drive conflict in multiple domains. States with diminished relational power relative to their material capabilities seek to realign their positions through conflict, often targeting states with higher relational but weaker material power. Once conflict begins, it disseminates information about states’ material power, which may pacify or prompt further conflict. We assess the internal and external validity of our theory in two steps. First, we create a computational model to test our assumptions. Second, we conduct empirical analyses using a novel network-based measure of hierarchy misalignment. Together, we find evidence that greater hierarchy misalignment increases conflict initiation and system-wide instability. These findings highlight the importance of hierarchy in conflict dynamics.