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Likelihood-free Inference in Strategic Contexts

Building upon recent innovations in Computational Science, this projects proposes a new framework for inference in international relations where strategic considerations are rampant.

Hierarchy misalignment and war: Network effects of relational and material power

Uses computational modeling and network analysis to introduce a theory of hierarchy misalignment, where discrepancies between states' material and relational power drive conflict in multiple domains.

Dynamics of Change in International Organizations

This project investigates how states renegotiate international bargains after unexpected events undermine the initial deal and finds that internal reforms are most likely when powerful and weak states alike desire change. If there is an imbalance, however, and only one group is mobilized for change, then the creation of a new institution becomes more likely as it bypasses the veto of the other group.

An Adaptive Design for the Efficient Estimation of Temporal Preferences

This project draws on psychometrics and machine learning techniques to propose a non-parametric Bayesian method to optimize complex multidimensional experimental estimation.

Alliance Management in the Face of Public Opinion: Experimental Evidence from the United States, Japan, and South Korea

Using a survey experiment concurrently fielded in Korea, Japan, and the U.S., this project investigates what states are looking for in an ally.

A Preferences-based Theory of Audience Costs

Unlike what is commonly thought, this paper demonstrates that audience costs exist because individuals have substantive preferences over policy.

A Direct Method for the Estimation of Temporal Preferences

This projects introduces a new method to estimate the temporal preferences of individuals regarding collective outcomes.