Manuscript

Measured in Blood: The Power to Hurt and the Public Appetite for War

This project finds that individuals have an intuitive sense of the power to hurt and explores three plausible mechanisms that could account for this dynamic.

Likelihood-free Inference in Strategic Contexts

Building upon recent innovations in Computational Science, this projects proposes a new framework for inference in international relations where strategic considerations are rampant.

Hierarchy misalignment and war: Relational and material power disparities among states

Uses computational modeling and network analysis to introduce a theory of hierarchy misalignment, where discrepancies between states' material and relational power drive conflict in multiple domains.

Dynamics of Change in International Organizations

This project investigates how states renegotiate international bargains after unexpected events undermine the initial deal and finds that internal reforms are most likely when powerful and weak states alike desire change. If there is an imbalance, however, and only one group is mobilized for change, then the creation of a new institution becomes more likely as it bypasses the veto of the other group.

Do Co-Party Signals on Tariffs Stretch Voters' Inflation Thresholds for Industry?

This paper introduces a new way to estimate individual preferences to investigate how participants respond to partisan cues regarding tariffs.

An Adaptive Design for the Efficient Estimation of Temporal Preferences

This project draws on psychometrics and machine learning techniques to propose a non-parametric Bayesian method to optimize complex multidimensional experimental estimation.

Alliance Management in the Face of Public Opinion: Experimental Evidence from the United States, Japan, and South Korea

Using a survey experiment concurrently fielded in Korea, Japan, and the U.S., this project investigates what states are looking for in an ally.

A Direct Method for the Estimation of Temporal Preferences

This projects introduces a new method to estimate the temporal preferences of individuals regarding collective outcomes.